Issue No 2, July 1994.

NOTICE: Hard copies of the Australian New Crops Newsletter are available from the publisher, Dr Rob Fletcher. Details of availability are included in the Advice on Publications Available.

4. Football Teams and New Crops

Lists of possible new crops can easily run to thousands and while some crops are obviously better candidates for commercial success than others there is, as yet, no established process that can be applied to select those most likely to succeed.

Is it possible to tell which crops will eventually make the grade to commercial development?

Selecting potential new crops for development is similar in many respects to the problems which confront the selectors of first grade football teams. Selectors of new crops might be able to hone their skills from the techniques of the football selectors. There appear to be some similarities.

Before attempting to select a football team it is first necessary to identify the football 'code' in which the team will play. The type of individual who will make a good rugby player is somewhat different from the typical Australian rules or grid-iron player. A six foot seven reject from a basketball team is much more likely to make his name as a ruckman with an Australian rules team than as a front row forward at Ballymore.

Picking the 'code' is also important in crop selection. A crop for subsistence agriculture in West Africa is likely to have an entirely different set of required characteristics than a crop intended to compete in strongly contested world trade in horticulture. Some knowledge of the likely 'code' a crop will play in is probably one of the first steps in the selection process.

The second step in selecting football players is to look at the existing weaknesses in the team. If there is an erratic goal-kicking record then a player with a good boot is an obvious need for the team. The lesson is to select on the right criteria. If the scrum gets badly pushed around by the opposition, selectors will be more likely to give a guernsey to heavier, fridge-shaped, players.

Just as selecting new footballers depends partly on the strength of current players, so it is with crops. If there is a strong symphony of summer crops available for a particular area with potential for winter cropping, then it is more likely that a winter crop will prove successful. New crop selection should focus on areas of weakness rather than try to develop new crops which compete with already successful crops.

Thirdly, in any team of players, in any sport, there is always room for the 'utility' players. Utility players may not be particularly outstanding at any particular aspect but must be sound all-rounders with good skills in a number of areas.

Crops with these characteristics are also required. Successful new crops are more likely to be those which are able to withstand a wide range of weather conditions, and are not too sensitive to shortcomings in the farmer's planting or weed control practices. These utility characteristics are valuable attributes. Crops are more likely to be commercially successful if they are forgiving of farmers' shortcomings and provide reasonable yields over a wide range of conditions.

Selecting the reserves is almost as important as selecting the players for the game. Reserves are the guys that sit on the bench and run on when exhaustion or injury reduces the potency of the team. Reserves are important, and they have to be as fit and as capable as any of the run-on team and need to be ready to perform at a moment's notice. A good reserve has to be flexible enough to play well in a range of positions on the field. Flexibility and versatility is therefore a key need for a reserve.

New crops are akin to reserves, waiting on the benches to run on into the commercial limelight. They have to be ready to run on at a moment's notice; such as when a perennial player gets a corked thigh from a mutated fungus or when a normally docile market delivers an unanticipated bunch of fives to KO a crop which has been grown for years. That is the time to call on the new crop reserve. If the reserve bench has been depleted by official neglect the farming game may be irretrievably lost.

Although selecting players has these similarities to selecting new crops, there is one big difference.

The difference is time, that truly limiting resource. Whereas the skills of the football selectors are applied to footballers as they develop over a few years, new crops can take many more years to cross the threshold from curiosity to commercialisation.

Because of this long lead time to new crop commercialisation, selecting a successful new crop is like picking a first grade footballer from the kids in the kindergarten sand-pit. Over a period of 15 years many things can change, but nothing quite as much as a four year old child.

The little chap with the sturdy appearance, aggressively burying his friend in the sand, might not turn out to be a front-row footballer at all. He might grow into a sumo wrestler. He may not grow much more at all after turning five and may instead become a consort for Snow White. In 15 years so much can change. Who knows? He might even have a sex and name change and become Snow White.

While there are some common selection criteria applicable to both footballers and new crops, the difficulties of knowing what is required or available in the future will always complicate new crop selection.

Making predictions is always difficult and as the Irishman said, 'Making predictions is particularly difficult when they are about the future'.

Contact: Dr Rob Fletcher, School of Land and Food, The University of Queensland Gatton College, 4345; Telephone: 07 5460 1311 or 07 5460 1301; Facsimile: 07 5460 1112; International facsimile: 61 7 5460 1112; Email: r.fletcher@mailbox.uq.edu.au

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originally created by: GK; latest update 6 June 1999 by: RF