Issue No 9, January 1998.

NOTICE: Hard copies of the Australian New Crops Newsletter are available from the publisher, Dr Rob Fletcher. Details of availability are included in the Advice on Publications Available.

5. Choosing new crops by the systems approach

The three most obvious ways new crops worthy of research and development have been chosen in the past have been as a result of politics, experts or serendipity.

Politics
"Every revolutionary idea - in science, politics, art, or whatever - evokes three stages of reaction in a hearer: It is completely impossible - don't waste my time.
It is possible, but it is not worth doing.
I said it was a good idea all along." (Anon)

The political process produces new crop development programs to satisfy a political will. This can be the result of a particular agricultural policy, specific agricultural funding or may be due to pressure exerted by lobby groups. Such processes have been successful in the past in drawing attention to potential new crop industries.

Unfortunately, relatively short political time spans contrast with the long lead times required to commercialise new crops.

Experts
"An expert in any field is a person who knows enough about what's really going on to be scared." (P.J. Plauger)

An expert in a new crop is often not as effectively equipped with information as those crop experts working with established crops.

The learning process needs to be a shared experience between the industry and the so-called expert. Information is usually not available or is difficult to apply to a new set of circumstances without some careful modification.

Serendipity
"Serendipity - The pleasant surprise of happening upon a fortunate discovery when you weren't in search of it." (Henry Walpole)

Serendipity is the discovery of interesting new crops unexpectedly or by accident. Serendipity plays a large role in the development of new crops, through the recreational interests of inquiring people.

Such research receives little or no direct funding but is often carried out by recognised researchers, as well as by gifted amateurs, in their own backyards.

The New Crops Project at The University of Queensland Gatton College, has been commissioned by the Rural Industries Research and Development Corporation and the Grains Research and Development Corporation to investigate whether a more satisfactory method can be developed to choose new crops worthy of research and development.

The outcome of these investigations has been to propose a systems, or holistic, approach to the problem.

To gain some insight into the system which is your new crop enterprise, the system can be imagined as a series of rows and columns.

Each column in the system refers to one of four questions:

What are our wishes?
What are our specific objectives?
How can the system be evaluated and modified?
What are our future plans?

Each row is one of eight questions:

What results do we get from "blue sky trawling" (this is best done, individually in a warm bath or with a group when everyone is feeling reasonably happy)?
What do we know?
What is to be done?
What's around us?
Who's involved?
What's coming in?
What gear is involved?
What's going out as product?

In the following tables, the four column questions have been addressed one at a time. For each column question, the eight row questions have been restated as specific questions.

Column 1. What are our wishes?

General question	Specific questions	1. What are our wishes? Using the imagination; lateral thinking
1. Blue Sky Trawling	What are our dreams?	Dreams
2. What do we know?	How much do we really know about the dream?	How much do we really know? How fanciful is the dream? How good is the information we have? Personal inventory: where are we now, where do we want to be in ten years?
3. What is to be done?	What is the main purpose?	How do we make the dream come true?
4. What's around us?	What is the environment like, physical and otherwise?	Optimistic view of the world as it relates to the dream; a broad view of the capabilities
5. Who's involved?	Who would we like to have interested?	Who do we need to make the dream come true?
6. What's coming in?	What inputs would we like to have available, including people, finance, information?	Contributions, cooperatives
7. What gear is involved?	What equipment would we like to have available?	Access
8. What's going out as product?	What outcomes would we like to see and when?	Define the product accurately. What would we wish the market to be?

Column 2. What are our specific objectives?

General question	Specific questions	2. What are our specific objectives? What is to be done? How is it to be done? Where is it to be done? Who will do it?
1. Blue Sky Trawling	What are our aims?	What is the main purpose, what is the purpose of the purpose etc.
2. What do we know?	How much do we know about achieving the purpose?	What is the key info; what do we need to know? Do we have the info we need? How good is the information we have? New crops criteria 1-126
3. What is to be done?	What is the most likely way to achieve the main purpose?	Review commercialisation steps 1-13
4. What's around us?	What parts of the environment do we need to have access to, in order to achieve the purpose?	Specific view of capabilities, based on the reality of having to achieve the purpose Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats
5. Who's involved?	Who is available and is willing to participate?	Formation of the team; How clever are the people available? Who is missing? New crop workers, agencies Listserver, field days
6. What's coming in?	What are the inputs available, including people, finance, information?	Assets
7. What gear is involved?	How much of the needed equipment is available?	Description of the process from production to sale Consider the value chain
8. What's going out as product?	What are the likely outcomes?	Pre-feasibility marketing analysis

3. How can the system be evaluated and modified?

General questions	Specific questions	3. How can the system be evaluated and modified? What are the relationships like between the elements of the system?
1. Blue Sky Trawling	Do the aims need reassessment?	What is the solution-after-next?
2. What do we know?	What research information needs to be commissioned?	Internet, networks Meetings, workshops
3. What is to be done?	What is the most likely way to carry out the main purpose?	Consider Chance, Curiosity, Communication, Cooperation, Commitment, Co-ordination, Cop-out, Crooks, Commercialise DOOR Marketing, DOOR, PMP/Future Profit
4. What's around us?	What is the environment like, physical and otherwise?	REDO, funding agencies, cooperatives
5. Who's involved?	How clever are the people available?	Evaluating outcomes
6. What's coming in?	What are the inputs available, including people, finance, information?	Maintenance, capacity Analysis of costs
7. What gear is involved?	How much of the needed equipment is available?	Synergism
8. What's going out as product?	What are the likely outcomes	Gross margins Profit Return on investment

4. What are our future plans?

General question	Specific question	4. What are our future plans?
1. Blue Sky Trawling	What are our aims?
2. What do we know?	How good is the information?
3. What is to be done?	What is the most likely way to carry out the main purpose?
4. What's around us?	What is the environment like, physical and otherwise?
5. Who's involved?	How clever are the people available?
6. What's coming in?	What are the inputs available, including people, finance, information?
7. What gear is involved?	How much of the needed equipment is available?
8. What's going out as product?	What are the likely outcomes

Any claims made by authors in the Australian New Crops Newsletter are presented by the Editors in good faith. Readers would be wise to critically examine the circumstances associated with any claims to determine the applicability of such claims to their specific set of circumstances. This material can be reproduced, with the provision that the source and the author (or editors, if applicable) are acknowledged and the use is for information or educational purposes. Contact with the original author is probably wise since the material may require updating or amendment if used in other publications. Material sourced from the Australian New Crops Newsletter cannot be used out of context or for commercial purposes not related to its original purpose in the newsletter

Contact: Dr Rob Fletcher, School of Land and Food, The University of Queensland Gatton College, 4345; Telephone: 07 5460 1311 or 07 5460 1301; Facsimile: 07 5460 1112; International facsimile: 61 7 5460 1112; Email: r.fletcher@mailbox.uq.edu.au

[New Crops Home Page] [New Crops Program] [Australian New Crops Newsletter] [New Crops Publications] [Order Form] [People] [Crop Profiles] [Other Resources]

originally created by: GK; latest update 6 June 1999 by: RF